My football fantasy team

So once again, I am in a fantasy football league.   

Adrian Peterson will lead my fantasy football team to victory!

 

And unlike last year, I’m not the returning champion. In fact, I didn’t even make the playoffs last season, thanks to some bad luck, injuries and guys not living up to their draft potential.   

So I went into this year’s draft more optimistic. I mean, what are the odds that I could have bad drafts back-to-back?   

Just a few notes about the league for those that follow fantasy sports: We dress two QBs, two RBS, two WRS, one tight end, one WR/RB, one WR/TE, one kicker and two team defences. We also have six bench spots.   

Our league stats are also a bit different than normal. Touchdowns are worth 6 points each, and every 50 yards passed, and 20 yards rushed and received, are worth an additional point. You can lose points for interceptions, sacks, fumbles lost and missed field goals (and missed points after touchdowns).   

Here’s how my lineup shakes down after the draft:   

Round 1, 2nd overall: Adrian Peterson. I’m very excited with this choice. I planned to take him even if I had the #1 pick. No disservice to Chris Johnson, but I don’t think Johnson can replicate his numbers from last year. Peterson has been consistent his three years in the league, and will be expected to carry more of a workload since the receiving corps in Minnesota is injured. And since touchdowns are worth so much in our league, having a back that can score 18 touchdowns is a great thing.   

Round 2, 23rd overall: Philip Rivers. With the way our system is set up, QBs are more valuable than RBs in general (at this point, eight other QBs were taken). So it’s important to get a top-notch quarterback, especially since we start two quarterbacks a week. Rivers fills that need for me. He throws for a lot of yards, and keeps his interceptions down (only nine last season). Solid pick.   

Matt Ryan is going to be awesome this year!

 

Round 3, 26th overall: Matt Ryan. Same situation as with my second rounder. I needed a good quarterback, and Ryan was the best available. After this pick, the quality of quarterbacks left took a huge nosedive, with the best available being guys like Jay Cutler, Donovon McNabb and Carson Palmer. Serviceable guys, but not great guys.   

Round 4, 47th overall: Anquan Boldin. Now I needed to focus on a quality wide receiver. Boldin moved away from Arizona at the right time, and steps into a good situation in Baltimore. There’s some talented wideouts to help keep focus away from him, and there’s a good quarterback to get the ball to him. Even with an off-year last year, he kept getting the yards. I see Boldin getting back to the 10+ touchdowns he used to get.   

Round 5, 50th overall: Thomas Jones. I was surprised he was still available here. He has at least 1,000 yards rushing in each of the last five seasons. Scored 27 touchdowns in the last two seasons combined. He’s the #1 runningback in Kansas City. He doesn’t fumble the ball (a maximum of two in any of his last six seasons). A good solid runningback to have on the team.   

Don't mess with the Green Bay defence!

 

Round 6, 71st overall: Green Bay defence. It may sound early to take a defence team, but it actually isn’t. With 12 people in the pool, and us dressing two defences a week, it meant a manager has to choose three defences. If not, you wind up seeing all the defences snapped up. Then, when one of your teams is on a bye week, there’s nothing to replace them with. Plus, with our scoring system, team defences are important cost you more games then you think. So I wanted to get a quality team defence. Green Bay fits that bill.   

Round 7, 74rd overall: Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, I realize he’s suspended for the first four games of the season. But I already have two top-tier quarterbacks. Roethlisberger will be my replacement when one of those guys have a bye week. Or if they get injured, he’s a capable replacement. He’d be a lot better if he didn’t get sacked eight times a game, but I can live with him being the backup on my team.   

This Bengals cheerleader is very excited for Terrell Owens.

 

Round 8, 95th overall: Terrell Owens. At this point, I only had one wide receiver on my team, so I needed another guy that would dress every week that has the potential to put up big numbers. The only one left was #81. Owens excels best when he’s not the only weapon on the team. And in Cincinnati, he’s not even the top weapon. There’s Chad Ochocinco as the #1 wide receiver, which should open Owens up for more plays, leading to more yards and more touchdowns.   

Round 9, 98th overall: LeSean McCoy. McCoy had an okay season last year, but he was the backup to Brian Westbrook. With Westbrook now in San Fran, that leaves McCoy as the #1 RB option in Philly. So let’s see, I could choose a #1 runningback, or a #2 wide receiver (or even a kicker, which was the next choice). I will take the #1 RB every time, thank you very much.   

Round 10, 119th overall: Chicago Bears defence. Okay, I’ll admit I blew this one. I put them in my queue to keep them in my mind as my third team defence. But my other defences starting going, so I drafted these guys in the panic. No matter. I have a few days to convince myself that they’ll be a top defence again this season. Plus, they play the Lions twice, so at least I know I have at least two good fantasy weeks coming from these guys.   

It's okay. I don't know who Justin Forsett is either.

 

Round 11, 122nd overall: Justin Forsett. He will be the starting runningback in Seattle, at least at the beginning of the season. He may not keep it though. But he’s my fourth runningback option, so I’m not too worried. For now.   

Round 12, 143rd overall: Austin Collie. Without a doubt, my steal of the draft. As a rookie last year, he had 676 yards and seven touchdowns. Plus, he gets to play with Peyton Manning for another year. He should get better as he goes along, so he could be a threat for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.   

Round 13, 146th overall: Carolina defence. I still needed one more defence. Carolina was fifth in the league last year for interceptions, and first for fumbles recovered. So I like this team as my third defence (or #2, depending on how well Chicago does).   

Go Fred Davis! At least, that's what this Redskins cheerleader is saying.

 

Round 14, 167th overall: Fred Davis. My first and only tight end. I believe that the tight end position is overrated in fantasy football. Instead of grabbing an Antonia Gates or a Dallas Clark early (both were fourth round picks in the draft), I choose to wait and grab someone who could help my team in a later round. Davis had six touchdowns last year, and should benefit from the Redskins addition of Donovan McNabb. Solid pick.   

Round 15, 170th overall: Seneca Wallace. Interception machine Jake Delhomme is the starting QB in Cleveland. Wallace is the backup. How long before Wallace is the starter? Three weeks? Four? Does Delhomme even make it to the bye week?   

Watch. Kareem Huggins will be chosen in the top couple of rounds next season. But this season, he's still a solid sleeper.

 

Round 16, 191st overall: Kareem Huggins. This is when you start to go for a couple of sleeper picks. Huggins is a rookie in the Tampa Bay organization, and is second on the depth chart for runningbacks. The only man ahead of him is Cadillac Williams. That’s right, the same Cadillac Williams who spends more time on the IR than off it. The same Cadillac Williams who, despite playing all 16 games last year, had only 832 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. I think Huggins will become the main guy there by about the mid-point of the season.   

Round 17, 194th overall: Demaryius Thomas. Another potential sleeper. I know he’s had some foot problems this summer, but the wide receiver is expected to replace Brandon Marshall in Denver. That means a lot of footballs being thrown his way. If he works out, awesome. If not, he’s a bench player anyways, so no harm, no foul.   

Round 18, 215th overall: Jay Feely. The second-last overall pick of the draft. So of course, I pick a kicker. When I choose a kicker, I look for two things. One, they play in a dome, and two, if not a dome, then a nice warm-weather area. I stay away from kickers from Pittsburgh and Chicago because the weather can play havoc with a field goal attempt. And since we have it set up that you lose points for kickers missing a field goal, I tend to stay away from them. I’m happy with this strategy. I ended up with Feely, who was eighth in our league last year for points. The first kicker drafted was Stephen Gostkowski, way back in the seventh round. In that round, guys like Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel were drafted. I’d rather have the QB, RB or WR at that point, and save the kicker for last.   

Overall analysis:   

I’m happy with my team. This is how it breaks down by position:   

QB: Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Seneca Wallace   

RB: Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones, LeSean McCoy, Justin Forsett, Kareem Huggins   

WR: Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Austin Collie, Demaryius Thomas   

TE: Fred Davis   

K: Jay Feely   

DEF: Green Bay, Chicago, Carolina   

I’ve got the top runningback in the league, solid quarterbacks, good receivers and strong defences. I have everything I need to win the league.   

I just wish Yahoo didn’t predict my opponent would outscore me the first week.

Week 17 NFL predictions

We’re heading into the last week of the NFL season, which means one of two things: 1) Some teams will be resting their starters, and b) so many teams think they still have a shot at the playoffs, that invariably three or four of them can’t handle the pressure from their fans and media and end up choking. [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=peyton+manning&iid=7433555″ src=”a/6/e/6/Colts_Manning_Passes_b79b.JPG?adImageId=8776319&imageId=7433555″ width=”234″ height=”404″ /]

Either way, it all adds up to a bad weekend of football.

Ugh.

It also makes it harder to predict the winners of games.

Double ugh.

So in honour of the unpredictability of this weekend, I give you two scenarios for every game: what I think will happen, and what will probably happen.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, Bills favoured by 7 1/2

What I think will happen: I understand the Colts will probably rest their starters after the first quarter or so, but we’re talking about the Bills here. Half of the backups on the Colts could be starters for the Bills. I expect the Colts to score on their first couple of possessions for an early lead, and maybe hold on for the game. But they’ll cover the spread.

What actually will happen: Peyton Manning starts, throws one pass, and then comes out for the rest of the game. The Colts then bring out their secret weapon, Archie Manning, who goes on to throw nine picks.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions, Bears favoured by 2 1/2

What I think will happen: At 2-13, can this season be declared a success by the Lions organization? I say yes. Their quarterback, Matt Stafford, got some games in. Their young players got older and another year of experience. And they’ll be getting a top-five pick in the draft this year. If they take it slowly, and make smart drafting decisions and signing, they could be a playoff team in two or three years. But that’s still a few years away. For now, they have trouble with any team with more than four wins. That includes the Bears. Bears to win.

What actually will happen: Daunte Culpepper, who will start in place of Stafford, throws for an NFL record 600 yards and seven touchdowns, leading to a dispute over the winter about who should be the actual starting quarterback in Detroit. [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=ricky+williams&iid=7364198″ src=”7/b/6/0/Miami_Dolphins_v_1618.jpg?adImageId=8776342&imageId=7364198″ width=”234″ height=”351″ /]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins, Steelers favoured by 2 1/2

What I think will happen: The Steelers still have an outside chance for the playoffs. And despite them being the worst team in the league when it comes to the spread, they’ll pull off the victory this week.

What actually will happen: Ben Roethlisberger holds onto the ball for too long, gets sacked four times on the first possession, with the fourth one leading to another concussion for him. Ricky Williams makes the Steelers defence look foolish, and in the meantime, becomes the first person to retire and unretire in the same game.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings, Vikings favoured by 8 1/2

What I think will happen: The Giants need a win, and they’re going to get it this week. The Vikings have looked brutal lately, losing three of their last four (interesting stat: all three of those losses were night games). Brett Favre is yelling at his coach, Brad Childress. Childress is yelling at Favre. Not a good sign going into the playoffs.

What actually will happen: Brett Favre decides hsi coach is right and he needs a break, and takes himself out of the game during the warm-up, and ends his consecutive game streak at 284. The Giants lose to whoever the backup quarterback is in Minnesota. [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=atlanta+falcons&iid=7432969″ src=”5/1/7/f/Buffalo_Bills_v_562a.jpg?adImageId=8776352&imageId=7432969″ width=”234″ height=”340″ /]

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Falcons favoured by 2 1/2

What I think will happen: No matter what their record may say, Tampa is the worst team in the league. They have looked unprepared for games, and seem to get destroyed on a weekly basis more than the Brooklyn Brawler. Atlanta to win.

What actually will happen: The Falcons look forward to the next game, and look past the Bucs. Unfortunately, their next game is in August during the preseason.

San Fransisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams, 49ers favoured by 6 1/2

What I think will happen: The Rams may have the league’s worst record at 1-14, but they are a respectable 7-8 against the spread, especially when they’re the underdogs (which has been for all 16 games this year). I expect the 49ers to win, but the Rams to cover.

What actually will happen: The Rams decide they actually want to win a game, and destroy the Falcons, leading to everyone in St. Louis to act their the Rams had a half-decent season, but they had some bad breaks.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans, Texans favoured by 7 1/2

What I think will happen: What’s up with all these much-better teams getting shafted in the spread? The Patriots have never taken a game off, or rested their starters. In fact, I think Tom Brady has played every minute this year, including the preseason and even on defence. Look for the Pats to not rest anyone and win the game.

What actually will happen: Tom Brady gets injured on the first play, and Bill Simmons immediately posts a 10,000-word column about how in the past 10 years, Boston sports teams haven’t gotten a single break (well, except for Brady’s leg last season). [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=carolina+panthers&iid=7436361″ src=”1/9/f/a/Carolina_Panthers_v_d5b0.jpg?adImageId=8776360&imageId=7436361″ width=”234″ height=”348″ /]

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, Panthers favoured by 6 1/2

What I think will happen: The Saints have looked terrible the past four weeks. They barely defeated the Redskins and Falcons, had their winning streak snapped by the Cowboys, and then lost to the Bucs. Now they play division rival Panthers, who still has an outside chance at the playoffs. And there’s no word on whether the Saints are going to rest their starters. This doesn’t bode well for the Saints. Panthers to win.

What actually will happen: Reggie Bush gets injured, but no one actually notices.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns, Browns favoured by 1 1/2

What I think will happen: With all due respect, how are the Browns favoured against anyone? If you were to put together a team of players left over from the XFL, which hasn’t been around since 2001, I’d still take XFL team over the Browns. Jaguars to win.

What actually will happen: In a surprise move, Lebron James actually makes his NFL debut, scores three touchdowns. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, James announces he is moving to New York next year for some inexplicable reason.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, Cowboys favoured by 2 1/2

What I think will happen: Wait, the Cowboys are playing a semi-important game in December? Against a division rival? Sounds like a tough decisi- Eagles to win.

What actually will happen: Tony Romo plays a great game, shedding the moniker of he’s just a great early season quarterback. Nah, that’s the most farfetched one yet. [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=philip+rivers&iid=7415468″ src=”e/3/d/6/Cincinnati_Bengals_v_3cd7.jpg?adImageId=8776362&imageId=7415468″ width=”234″ height=”326″ /]

Washington Redskins at San Diego Chargers, Chargers favoured by 3 1/2

What I think will happen: This game is a crazy study in contrast. The Redskins have been the least entertaining team to watch this year. The Chargers have been one of the most. The Redskins don’t have a good quarterback. The Chargers do. The Redskins are one of the worst teams. The Chargers are one of the best. Chargers to win.

What actually will happen: Norv Turner gets outcoached by a coachless Redskins team. Not actually going to happen, because it’s not the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks, Titans favoured by 4 1/2

What I think will happen: Despite the fact the Titans still have an outside chance to make the playoffs, I expect the team to mostly focus on Chris Johnson wanting to get 2,000 rushing yards in a season. He’ll get the ball early, and he’ll get it a lot, no matter what the score is. Still, I think the Titans will pull it off.

What actually will happen: Johnson actually rushes for negative 100 yards in a game, becoming the first runningback to ever do so.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders, Ravens favoured by 10 1/2

What I think will happen: This was my hardest pick of the week. The Raiders have looked good at times this season, especially against some of the better teams in the league. And it’s a pretty big spread. But the Ravens are going to be fired up for this game, and will be looking to make a statement going into the playoffs. Ravens to win.

What actually will happen: JaMarcus Russell gets the start, and finishes the game with a perfect quarterback rating.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, Cardinals favoured by 3 1/2

What I think will happen: This could be the most entertaining game of the week. Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, so it will come down to pride. I expect Kurt Warner to not play as much as Aaron Rodgers, and that will be the difference. Packers to win. 

What actually will happen: Both teams have a dull game, with a combined 25 punts between them, and a final 3-0 score. [picapp align=”right” wrap=”true” link=”term=denver+broncos&iid=7435211″ src=”1/6/7/b/Denver_Broncos_v_bb78.jpg?adImageId=8776366&imageId=7435211″ width=”234″ height=”319″ /]

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, Broncos favoured by 12 1/2

What I think will happen: Has any team ever suffered more because of a bye than the Broncos. They were 6-0 going into their bye week, and are 2-7 since. They’ll win this game, but the spread is too high. Chiefs to cover.

What actually will happen: The Chiefs trade back for Larry Johnson, who breaks the Chiefs record for most rushing yards in a career with the team. Chiefs fans (all 37 of them) stage a protest.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets, Jets favoured by 9 1/2

What I think will happen: This is the last game of the season, and a lot of what happens will be determined early in the day. The Jets will make the playoffs with a win. But if it turns out they can make it in win or lose, they could start resting starters early. The Bengals have been the surprise team of the season, and if they’re smart, will want to do what the Giants did a few years ago against the Patriots, and play the entire game for pride. It could help going into the playoffs.

What actually will happen: The Jets implode, with Mark Sanchez throwing three picks in a game. Wait, that’s already happened four times this season? Who’s his idol, Jay Cutler?

NFL picks, Week 2 playoffs

After a disappointing 2-2 record last week, I’m determined to get at least three right this week.

Just a couple of notes on why I’m picking who I am.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: Baltimore has more playoff experience. Their defence is tough, and they have a solid running game. Their only downside is they have a rookie quarterback (Joe Flacco) playing on the road. Still, I think their defensive experience will pull this game out for them.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: Arizona is brutal on the road. They were 3-5 on the road, but their three wins were all against non-playoff teams. Carolina was 8-0 at home, and has the benefit of not playing last week. Carolina is too tough and has too many weapons. Despite the big spread, Carolina to win.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: The Giants are Superbowl champs, have confidence and home field advantage. The Eagles have momentum and a win in New York a few weeks back. But the Giants have had an extra week to prepare, and will be ready for the Eagles this week. Giants to win.

San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: As you can tell, I’m a big fan of the home team winning this week. Except for the Ravens, I expect the home team to win all these games, and Pittsburgh is no exception. I’m a little concerned about the spread and the fact Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a concussion. But I think the Chargers peaked last week, and will experience an emotional letdown this week. I think the Steelers win pretty easily.

 

NFL Week 19: tommco’s Picks
Game	Spread	Pick
Baltimore at Tennessee	Line: Titans by 2 1/2	Ravens
Arizona at Carolina	Line: Panthers by 9 1/2	Panthers
Philadelphia at New York	Line: Giants by 4 1/2	Giants
San Diego at Pittsburgh	Line: Steelers by 6 1/2	Steelers

Football picks

So I’ll be leaving soon to make some football picks on Pro-Line. By picking six games and betting $2, I can win $130.

Maybe I’m still swooning over my $32 win last week, but I think I have a good shot this week.

These are my picks. Tell me what you think and what you think my odds are.

Note: For all these games, the winners need to win by four points or more.

Jacksonville Jaguars over the Detroit Lions. Jacksonville has lost to two bad the teams the past couple of weeks, and the Lions are the worst team in football. Add it up, and it equals another Lions loss.

Tennessee Titans over the Chicago Bears. Rex Grossman against one of the best defensive teams in the league? I can’t see it happening.

New Orleans Saints over the Atlanta Falcons. This is the most difficult game of the day. New Orleans has lots of offence, but no defence. But I think Drew Brees will be too much for Atlanta to handle.

Green Bay Packers over the Minnesota Vikings. The key to this matchup isn’t the Green Bay offence against the Vikings defence, it’s the Minnesota offence against the Packers defence. I don’t think Minnesota will be able to score many points because of their weak quarterback situations.

Indianapolis Colts over the Pittsburgh Steelers. I had the Steelers until I heard Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t playing. So I can see Peyton Manning having a good enough game to get the Colts a win.

New York Giants over the Phildelphia Eagles. Philly has trouble against good teams. The Giants are the best team in football. Enough said.