It’s going to be an ugly week.
It’s not too often that I don’t feel that confident about my picks, but this is one of them. The spreads are just too high.
Out of 15 games, there are five that have spreads of 8 1/2 or more. An additional three have spreads of 6 1/2. So pretty much, a little more than half the games have the room team needing to win by at least a touchdown.
Not every team will. There are always upsets and teams that don’t cover the spread. The problem is predicting those upsets correctly. Pick the wrong three, and that’s six losses right away.
It’s tough, and with half the league seemingly to be really good, and half the league to be really bad, it doesn’t look to get any better.
Anyways, on to the picks.
Chicago Bears at San Fransisco 49ers, 49ers favoured by 2 1/2
Not a good start. I took the Bears, because I figured their defence would be able to stop the 49ers. And they did. I just didn’t count on Jay Cutler throwing more passes to the 49ers than his own teammates. Cutler threw five picks, including ones on the 49ers 1-yard line and the 12-yard-line. If they had kicked field goals instead of interceptions at those points, they would not only have covered the spread, but they would have won the game outright. Stupid Cutler. Bears to win. (D’oh)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, Vikings favoured by 16 1/2
It’s a good thing the Vikings had a bye last week. They need the extra time to prepare for the Lions. Actually, even though the Lions’ record may not show it, they’ve been a lot better than last season. They’re more competitive, and are probably the best team of the worst five teams in the league. But still, they’re one of the five worst teams in the league, and the Vikings are one of the top three. Vikings to win.
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins, Broncos favoured by 3 1/2
This has to be the silliest spread of the week. So the Broncos, who are 6-2, are only 3 1/2 favourites against a 2-6 Redskins team that has no decent quarterback, no head coach calling the plays and looks like one of the worse teams in the league? Broncos to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins, Dolphins favoured by 9 1/2
The Bucs won their first game of the season last week, but they’re still the worst team in the league. The Dolphins aren’t that great, but they will control the ball and the clock this week. Dolphins to win.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans, Titans by 6 1/2
Titans are on a role. Two straight wins after starting the season 0-6. I have no idea what’s going on with the Bills. Titans to win.
New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams, Saints by 13 1/2
Normally, this would be a “uh-oh, watch out for the big spread with an undefeated team plays a weak team” type of game. But the Saints offence is the best in the league, and the Rams defence is, well, how can I put this…. horrible. Saints to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, Jets by 6 1/2
Jacksonville is a bad team. The Jets are mediocre. Therefore, Jets to win.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, Falcons favoured by 1 1/2
The Falcons are a good team, and have only lost against upper echelon teams this season. The Panthers seem to have lost confidence in one another, especially quarterback Jake Delhomme. Falcons to win.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers by 6 1/2
The Bengals beat the Steelers earlier this season, although that was in Cincy. The Steelers are a tough team, but the Bengals seem to find ways to win almost every week. I think this spread is too high because of that. Bengals to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders, Raiders by 1 1/2
Oakland was the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Yes, even worse than Delhomme. Kansas City just released their #1 runningback, Larry Johnson. Yet, the Raiders are favoured, and I think they’re going to win as well. I must be nuts. Raiders to win.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers, Cowboys favoured by 2 1/2
Except in losses to the Vikings, Green Bay has not looked good this season. The Cowboys look better every week. Cowboys to wins.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers, Chargers by 2 1/2
I don’t get how the Chargers are favoured here. The Chargers record looks good, but they’ve been able to beat up on the Raiders twice, the Dolphins and a Giants team in a freefall. The Eagles play in the toughest division in football, have been battling injuries (although that’s nothing new), and should be fired up after losing to a division foe last week. Eagles to win.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, Cardinals favoured by 8 1/2
Ever have that crazy friend that you don’t know what to expect they will do? Sometimes, they seem dull and listless and don’t really care, and other times they’re just on fire, and everything is clicking? That’s the Arizona Cardinals. And luckily, even is they are dull and listless and don’t really care this week, they’re only playing the Seahawks. Cardinals to win.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts, Colts favoured by 2 1/2
I wrote this all the way back before week’s 2 games: “The Colts start off the season with a favourable schedule. After disposing of the Jaguars last week, their next seven matches look like this: at Miami, at Arizona, Seattle, at Tennessee, at St. Louis, San Fran, and Houston. They could very easily be 8-0.” Now they are 8-0, and playing against a Patriots team that is finding out how Tom Brady got his groove back. The Colts have had the easier schedule. last week against Houston was the first time they’ve played a team that has been over .500. And they struggled. The Pats have been destroying their opponents lately, outscoring their opponents 121 to 24 over the past three games (and no, that is not an exaggeration). I expect the Colts to be ready for this game, and I expect Peyton Manning to be the difference. While the Pats have looked good lately, they haven’t played a tought defensive team in more than a month. Colts to win.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, Ravens favoured by 10 1/2
Cleveland fans wanted a football team back for seasons like this? You know you’re having a bad year when Lions fans can point to your team and laugh. Ravens to win.